在国会的一次听证会上，格林斯潘表示美国经济增长有力，但是面临房地产过热的风险。华尔街的分析师认为，格林斯潘的此番言论是强硬“鹰派”，暗示美联储将提高短期利率。格林斯潘发出了迄今为止最为明确的信号，称某些地区的房价将会下降。格林斯潘之前就批评过抵押贷款，并称有投机嫌疑在推动房地产市场。
根据《金融时报》5月的一篇文章，人们越来越担心美国房屋市场过热，更多的证据显示，投机压力已在形成。经济学家担心，越来越多的家庭为了搬入新居，已被迫在融资问题上走捷径，他们放弃传统的30年期固定利率抵押贷款，而选取更便宜的浮动利率贷款。美国抵押银行协会(Mortgage Bankers Assocation)最近表示，在去年下半年的新增抵押贷款美元价值中，60%以上为浮动利率贷款或仅付利息贷款。
经过笔者研究，支持“投机压力形成”的数据还有，美联社在7月11日的一篇文章中说，全美房地产经纪协会调查显示，35％的购房者用于投资或者第二住宅。（A study by the National Association of Realtors found that more than 35 percent of all home sales were for investment purposes or as second homes.）
在7月21日的文章中，美联社报道说，尽管30年期抵押贷款固定利率和15年期抵押贷款固定利率都有增长，但是仍足以保证房地产市场的继续繁荣。（U.S. 30-year mortgage rates averaged 5.73 percent in the week ended July 21, up from 5.66 percent a week earlier. It was the highest level for 30-year mortgages since they averaged 5.77 percent in the May 12 week.Fifteen-year mortgages averaged 5.32 percent compared with 5.25 percent last week. One-year adjustable rate mortgages rose in the week to an average of 4.42 percent from 4.39 percent.）
美联社：格林斯潘关注房地产过热Greenspan keeps focus on housing market
Fed chief, in testimony, signals rate hikes will continue
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan Wednesday all but guaranteed more rate hikes in congressional testimony that
highlighted strong economic growth but also growing risks of an overheated housing market.
Several Wall Street analysts described Greenspan’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee as surprisingly
“hawkish,” meaning he sees an economy strong enough to justify continuing the Fed’s policy of steadily increasing short-
term interest rates longer than many had expected.
“We must face the reality that more rate hikes are coming,” said David Rosenberg, chief North American economist of Merrill
Lynch, in a research note raising his rate forecast. “There was nothing in the Chairman’s sermon even remotely hinting that
the Fed is close to being done in its current tightening program.”
The Fed’s policy-making Open Market Committee has raised the overnight federal funds rate by a quarter-percentage point at
every meeting since June 2004, pushing up the benchmark to its current 3.25 percent from a 46-year low of 1 percent. After
Wednesday’s comments from Greenspan, most analysts and traders are betting the rate will rise to at least 4 percent by year
’s end.
“By omission, the Chairman seems to have signaled that the (policy-making Federal Open Market Committee) is not
contemplating a pause between now and the next monetary policy report in six months,” said Neal Soss, chief economist for
Credit Suisse First Boston, in a note. “There are lots of developments that could sway the committee in the interim, but any
near-term pause in monetary adjustment seems not to be on the Fed’s agenda as of the moment.”
Although the Fed has little control over low mortgage rates that are helping propel record sales and price growth in the
housing market, Greenspan once again made clear that the red-hot sector is very much on his mind as he prepares for a
mandatory retirement next year after an eventful 18 years in office.
In some of his strongest remarks yet about the potential fallout from high housing prices, Greenspan reiterated warnings
about the increasing use of what he described as “exotic” mortgages and referred to “speculative fervor” that has driven
up prices in some markets.
“This type of expansion in prices historically does not go on very long and indeed, while it’s hard to forecast, and I’m
not sure that it’s going to occur, there may be -- there certainly will be in certain local areas -- price declines,”
Greenspan said.
It was the most definitive prediction yet from Greenspan that home prices will decline in some areas.
But Greenspan, in delivering his final midyear policy update to Congress, said any such declines probably would have little
impact on the broader national economy, in part because banks have spread out their mortgage risk more broadly than during
past real estate downturns. Greenspan will present the same testimony Thursday to a Senate committee, which also will have a
chance to question him about the economic outlook.
David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, said Greenspan appears to be hoping that his
sustained focus on home prices will help cool the market, perhaps by discouraging some would-be speculators from entering the
market.
“I frankly hope it evolves that way,” he said. “We could use less speculation in housing.”
In suggesting that the Fed has no plans to stop raising short-term rates, Greenspan also has indicated he is not worried
about the possibility of a so-called inverted yield curve that would occur if short-term interest rates exceed long-term
rates. In fact, long-term Treasury and mortgage rates, which have remained stubbornly low throughout the Fed’s rate-hike
cycle, have edged up slightly in recent weeks.
But Seiders said he has seen nothing yet to indicate that home prices are cooling, and he said the Fed and other banking
regulators are beginning to come under criticism from those who would like to see more aggressive action to prevent a housing
bubble from growing any bigger.
“The price numbers we have — I hate to say it — still look awfully exuberant,” he said. While home construction activity
has flattened over the past two months, “builders still have very strong incentives to build given where the prices are,”
he said.
Ultimately, he predicted, demand will taper off, giving builders a chance to increase supply and take some of the “froth”
out of the market.
While some forecasters threw in the towel Wednesday and raised their year-end forecasts for short-term interest rates, a few
still expect the economy to show signs of cooling.
Gina Martin, financial economist at Wachovia, said she expects the Fed to raise rates at its next two meetings in August and
September and then pause in response to a projected sharp slowdown in growth.
|
在参加新浪中文论坛之前您必须仔细阅读并同意下列条款：